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A hypothetical
04-07-2009, 01:38 PM
Post: #1
A hypothetical
Since discussion on here has been sorely lacking lately (and im just as guilty of that as anyone else) I thought i'd post a "what if" question and see what sort of answers come up.

First off this was taken directly from an online article by a name professional ( i wont say who) and so if u've seen it already and know where im going with this, i apologize.

First hand of a major 10k buy-in tournament (WSOP main event for example) and u've drawn the BB seat and posted ur 100. Everyone folds to the SB who open-shoves for his whole 20k starting stack. U look down at AdKc and before u can decide what to do, he shows u the QsJs. (Never minding any can show/can't show rules.) Do you call or fold? Remember, its the first hand of the WSOP main event.

As usual i hold back on my thoughts until we hear from someone else first Smile

I'm on tilt I'm not f****ng stupid - Kevin Farmer
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04-07-2009, 02:17 PM
Post: #2
RE: A hypothetical
I'm going to say I'd call. I'd be jittery though

Crap I had a TON of INS! - Kevin Farmer
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04-07-2009, 07:26 PM
Post: #3
RE: A hypothetical
I think you should call and I will fold. This is based only on my belief of you playing the odds, and me playing my feelings, hunches, whatever you want to call them.
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04-07-2009, 08:32 PM (This post was last modified: 04-07-2009 08:34 PM by Ms Tequila.)
Post: #4
RE: A hypothetical
I would definitely fold, it only cost me 100 out of a 20k starting stack. If the guys this crazy I'll get him another time when the odds are better - post flop. I've heard some pros even fold big pocket pairs in similar situations - i.e. putting it all on the line in the first few levels preflop.

Sorry it's Jon here, logged in on the wrong laptop and lazy.
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04-07-2009, 09:09 PM
Post: #5
RE: A hypothetical
Ok so heres my answer nad the reason why.

The actual odds are almost exactly 60/40 your way with the AK, or 3/2 if you prefer. That means IF you call, 3 out of five times u'll start the tournamnet with twice the chips, and twice u'll be bounced out on the first hand. I think u have to call. If it were closer to a 55/45 say QQ v. AK u could make a case for folding but 60/40's just huge. Or put another way, your getting laid even money (your 20k to win his) when ur a 3/2 favourite. If u were an underdog getting even money u would obviously fold, ud be out more often than ud double up. If the had were a true coinflip it wouldnt matter what u did. But as a clear favourite its seems to me to be a pretty big mistake to pass up on a spot like that.

And to those that say they dont want to be out on the first hand, 10k down the drain, whatever else, i say so what. U were an underdog to win any money on the whole damn tournament anyway never mind any decent money (compared to ur buy-in) Most major tournaments pay the top 10% of the field which means u were a 9/1 dog to even just make the money all other things being equal. Finishing in 6000th place pays u exactly the same as finishing 2337th so why not take the shot at early double up? its win/win, or at least win/no difference since that 10k was essentially lost anyway.

I'm on tilt I'm not f****ng stupid - Kevin Farmer
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